NEWSEDGE

Paper — no real moneyremote16:33:45Zlive

Lane differential

datum $1,000.00 · shared scale
Lanes level
$0.00

0.00% of the $1,000.00 datum

Same signals, same algorithm. The aggregator lane acts 1h 12m later. Everything below is that delay, priced.

DIRECT$1,000.00·$0.00·0.00%
gap $0.00
AGGREGATOR$1,000.00·$0.00·0.00%
$1,000.00 start
DIRECTacts at ingest
Realized
·$0.00
Unrealized
·$0.00
Fees paid
$0.00
Cash idle
$1,000.00
Record
0W · 0L
Positions
0 open · 0 closed
AGGREGATORacts on the delayed clock
Realized
·$0.00
Unrealized
·$0.00
Fees paid
$0.00
Cash idle
$1,000.00
Record
0W · 0L
Positions
0 open · 0 closed

16 entries · 16 closed · 0 open · min net edge 0.0200/contract · Kelly ×0.2500 · max 0.0500 of bankroll per position

Equity tracker

240 samples · 2h 56m
SHADOW — DOWN
−$137.97

−13.80%against a $1,000.00 start · now $862.03

A control group, not a strategy. This lane takes the trades the risk gate refused, at a fixed stake, so the refusals can be measured instead of assumed. Below the datum is an expected result — it is what the gate was avoiding.

$1,000.00 start
13:36:49Z → 16:33:28Zlast 2h 56m of engine uptimehigh $862.03 · low $862.03
SHADOWDIRECTAGGREGATOR
Realized
−$137.97
banked — trades that are finished
Unrealized
·$0.00
marked to the book, not yet a result
Fees paid
$5.85
already spent, whatever the trades do
Record
1W · 14L
0 open · 16 closed

The series covers only the time the engine has been running (2h 56m). Nothing on this panel is annualized, extrapolated, or fitted to a trend.

Why we did not trade

301 skips

1 of 301 skips (0%) are attributable to latency, not to risk filtering.

  • low_confidence165
  • thin_book126
  • duplicate8
  • insufficient_edge1
  • stale_signal1
latency-attributablerisk filter

Latency

60 signals in window
Ingest lag · median
5m 46s
publish → first seen
Ingest lag · p90
4h 52m
the tail we actually trade in
Modeled aggregator delay
1h 12m
index + cache + CDN + poll
Signal age ceiling
30m 00s
older than this is never traded
Had the price already moved?threshold ±3.00c mid
already moved 0not yet moved 80

On 0% of the 80 matched markets, the mid had already crossed the threshold between the source publishing and our decision. The aggregator lane meets that same market a further 1h 12m downstream.

Open positions

0 open

Nothing open. Positions appear here the moment either lane enters, and stay until a take-profit, stop, time-stop or settlement closes them.

Closed trades

16 closed · 0 markets traded by both lanes
LaneVenueMarketSideQtyEntryExitWhyFeesRealizedHeldClosedSig age
DIRPOLYBitcoin Up or Down on July 31?polymarket:20091790256236221395563524580877393186877379489629275113514439808672293442802NO2694.00c96.80ctime_stop0.17+$0.561h 00m4h 24m56s
DIRPOLYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?polymarket:112157595552502425360311365480557346272967836691353340001604809204498706086576NO3128.00c6.00ctime_stop0.00−$6.241h 00m10h 01m1m 53s
DIRKALSHIWill CPI rise more than 1.0% in August 2026?kalshi:KXCPI-26AUG-T1.0YES2896.57c1.07ctime_stop0.11−$26.851h 00m1d 00h1h 09m
DIRKALSHIWill CPI rise more than 0.9% in August 2026?kalshi:KXCPI-26AUG-T0.9YES5694.14c1.04ctime_stop0.19−$52.371h 00m1d 00h1h 09m
DIRPOLYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?polymarket:12769703657222289110863139123222000053803471956261605910761965486624303252006YES139.449.77c6.82ctime_stop0.91−$5.021h 00m1d 01h3m 07s
DIRPOLYKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?polymarket:89731265201688934573289566127189974819778716044029261876931208278554506789737YES4385.70c5.50ctime_stop0.00−$0.881h 00m1d 08h3h 06m
DIRPOLYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?polymarket:77550960228341204288120509394963885549177211314903311399404330431381651171385NO7135.00c30.00ctime_stop0.00−$3.551h 00m1d 09h1m 28s
DIRPOLYKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?polymarket:89731265201688934573289566127189974819778716044029261876931208278554506789737YES4385.70c5.50ctime_stop0.00−$0.881h 00m1d 09h5h 59m
DIRPOLYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?polymarket:107961194152792740725727064379230288293910546811577910480987951504293301797282NO2779.00c7.00ctime_stop0.00−$5.541h 00m1d 10h2m 14s
DIRPOLYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?polymarket:77550960228341204288120509394963885549177211314903311399404330431381651171385NO6936.00c36.00ctime_stop0.00·$0.001h 00m1d 10h1m 19s
DIRKALSHIWill the Federal Reserve Hike rates by >25bps at their July 2027 meeting?kalshi:KXFEDDECISION-27JUL-H26YES2156.60c3.00ctime_stop1.39−$9.141h 00m1d 12h1h 59m
DIRKALSHIWill the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their July 2027 meeting?kalshi:KXFEDDECISION-27JUL-H25YES2157.60c3.71ctime_stop1.64−$10.011h 00m1d 12h1h 59m
DIRPOLYWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?polymarket:55115078421062885512539156303747803058407616201213034911037320915726138659123YES9227.00c26.00ctime_stop0.00−$0.921h 00m1d 12h2h 09m
DIRPOLYClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?polymarket:35198549486569600595408965368290795524428922595732253580266052028158040373233YES8928.00c28.00ctime_stop1.44−$1.441h 00m1d 12h3h 41m
DIRPOLYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 30?polymarket:85120775770768568171037319691430512769043349724236381575493834592043972740948NO3088.28c4.54ctime_stop0.00−$11.531h 00m1d 12h3h 49m
DIRPOLYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?polymarket:107961194152792740725727064379230288293910546811577910480987951504293301797282NO20812.00c10.00ctime_stop0.00−$4.161h 00m1d 12h3h 49m

Signal feed

60 of 2922 in window

Decision log

2 enter · 78 skip
  • AGGskip · thin_book24m 40s ago

    Kansas City vs Minnesota Winner?

    no book available from venue

    signal age at decision 1h 15m
  • AGGskip · thin_book24m 40s ago

    Kansas City vs Minnesota Winner?

    no book available from venue

    signal age at decision 1h 15m
  • DIRskip · thin_book34m 44s ago

    Trump out as President by July 31?

    no two-sided mid to anchor fair value

    signal age at decision 2m 30s
  • DIRskip · thin_book34m 44s ago

    Trump out as President by July 31?

    no two-sided mid to anchor fair value

    signal age at decision 2m 30s
  • AGGskip · thin_book1h 00m ago

    Trump out as President by July 31?

    no two-sided mid to anchor fair value

    signal age at decision 2h 50m
  • DIRskip · thin_book1h 37m ago

    Kansas City vs Minnesota Winner?

    no book available from venue

    signal age at decision 2m 01s
  • DIRskip · thin_book1h 37m ago

    Kansas City vs Minnesota Winner?

    no book available from venue

    signal age at decision 2m 01s
  • DIRskip · thin_book1h 37m ago

    Kansas City vs Minnesota Winner?

    no book available from venue

    signal age at decision 2m 01s
  • DIRskip · thin_book1h 37m ago

    Kansas City vs Minnesota Winner?

    no book available from venue

    signal age at decision 2m 01s
  • DIRskip · thin_book2h 08m ago

    Trump out as President by July 31?

    no two-sided mid to anchor fair value

    signal age at decision 1h 43m
  • DIRskip · thin_book2h 08m ago

    Trump out as President by July 31?

    no two-sided mid to anchor fair value

    signal age at decision 1h 43m
  • AGGskip · thin_book2h 20m ago

    Trump out as President by July 31?

    no two-sided mid to anchor fair value

    signal age at decision 1h 30m
  • AGGskip · low_confidence2h 37m ago

    Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?

    matcher confidence 0.36 < 0.55

    signal age at decision −4m 06s
  • AGGskip · low_confidence2h 37m ago

    Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?

    matcher confidence 0.36 < 0.55

    signal age at decision −4m 06s
  • AGGskip · thin_book2h 37m ago

    Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in July?

    no two-sided mid to anchor fair value

    signal age at decision −4m 06s
  • AGGskip · thin_book3h 09m ago

    Kansas City vs Minnesota Winner?

    no book available from venue

    signal age at decision 1h 01m
  • AGGskip · thin_book3h 09m ago

    Kansas City vs Minnesota Winner?

    no book available from venue

    signal age at decision 1h 01m
  • AGGskip · low_confidence3h 10m ago

    Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?

    matcher confidence 0.32 < 0.55

    signal age at decision 6h 34m
  • DIRskip · low_confidence3h 30m ago

    Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?

    matcher confidence 0.36 < 0.55

    signal age at decision −56m 18s
  • DIRskip · low_confidence3h 30m ago

    Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?

    matcher confidence 0.36 < 0.55

    signal age at decision −56m 18s
  • DIRskip · low_confidence3h 30m ago

    Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?

    matcher confidence 0.36 < 0.55

    signal age at decision −56m 18s
  • DIRskip · low_confidence3h 30m ago

    Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?

    matcher confidence 0.36 < 0.55

    signal age at decision −56m 18s
  • DIRskip · thin_book3h 30m ago

    Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in July?

    no two-sided mid to anchor fair value

    signal age at decision −56m 18s
  • DIRskip · thin_book3h 30m ago

    Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in July?

    no two-sided mid to anchor fair value

    signal age at decision −56m 18s
  • AGGskip · thin_book3h 33m ago

    Trump out as President by July 31?

    no two-sided mid to anchor fair value

    signal age at decision 1h 29m
  • DIRskip · thin_book3h 38m ago

    Trump out as President by July 31?

    no two-sided mid to anchor fair value

    signal age at decision 12m 36s
  • DIRskip · thin_book3h 38m ago

    Trump out as President by July 31?

    no two-sided mid to anchor fair value

    signal age at decision 12m 36s
  • AGGskip · thin_book3h 52m ago

    Trump out as President by July 31?

    no two-sided mid to anchor fair value

    signal age at decision 1h 22m
  • DIRskip · thin_book4h 09m ago

    Kansas City vs Minnesota Winner?

    no book available from venue

    signal age at decision 1m 37s
  • DIRskip · thin_book4h 09m ago

    Kansas City vs Minnesota Winner?

    no book available from venue

    signal age at decision 1m 37s
  • DIRskip · thin_book4h 09m ago

    Kansas City vs Minnesota Winner?

    no book available from venue

    signal age at decision 1m 37s
  • DIRskip · thin_book4h 09m ago

    Kansas City vs Minnesota Winner?

    no book available from venue

    signal age at decision 1m 37s
  • AGGskip · thin_book4h 15m ago

    Bitcoin Up or Down on July 30?

    no book available from venue

    signal age at decision 1h 10m
  • AGGskip · stale_signal4h 15m ago

    Bitcoin Up or Down on July 31?

    news was 70m old at decision time (limit 30m)

    signal age at decision 1h 10m
  • AGGskip · thin_book4h 15m ago

    Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on July 29?

    no book available from venue

    signal age at decision 1h 10m
  • AGGskip · low_confidence4h 16m ago

    Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?

    matcher confidence 0.28 < 0.55

    signal age at decision 57m 28s
  • AGGskip · low_confidence4h 16m ago

    Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?

    matcher confidence 0.28 < 0.55

    signal age at decision 57m 28s
  • AGGskip · thin_book4h 16m ago

    Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in July?

    no two-sided mid to anchor fair value

    signal age at decision 57m 28s
  • DIRskip · low_confidence4h 19m ago

    Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?

    matcher confidence 0.32 < 0.55

    signal age at decision 5h 25m
  • DIRskip · low_confidence4h 19m ago

    Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?

    matcher confidence 0.32 < 0.55

    signal age at decision 5h 25m
  • DIRskip · thin_book4h 54m ago

    Trump out as President by July 31?

    no two-sided mid to anchor fair value

    signal age at decision 8m 51s
  • DIRskip · thin_book4h 54m ago

    Trump out as President by July 31?

    no two-sided mid to anchor fair value

    signal age at decision 8m 51s
  • DIRskip · thin_book5h 06m ago

    Trump out as President by July 31?

    no two-sided mid to anchor fair value

    signal age at decision 9m 19s
  • DIRskip · thin_book5h 06m ago

    Trump out as President by July 31?

    no two-sided mid to anchor fair value

    signal age at decision 9m 19s
  • DIRskip · low_confidence5h 12m ago

    Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?

    matcher confidence 0.28 < 0.55

    signal age at decision 1m 27s
  • DIRskip · low_confidence5h 12m ago

    Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?

    matcher confidence 0.28 < 0.55

    signal age at decision 1m 27s
  • DIRskip · low_confidence5h 12m ago

    Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?

    matcher confidence 0.28 < 0.55

    signal age at decision 1m 27s
  • DIRskip · low_confidence5h 12m ago

    Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?

    matcher confidence 0.28 < 0.55

    signal age at decision 1m 27s
  • DIRskip · thin_book5h 12m ago

    Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in July?

    no two-sided mid to anchor fair value

    signal age at decision 1m 27s
  • DIRskip · thin_book5h 12m ago

    Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in July?

    no two-sided mid to anchor fair value

    signal age at decision 1m 27s
  • DIRskip · thin_book5h 24m ago

    Bitcoin Up or Down on July 30?

    no book available from venue

    signal age at decision 56s
  • DIRskip · thin_book5h 24m ago

    Bitcoin Up or Down on July 30?

    no book available from venue

    signal age at decision 56s
  • DIRskip · insufficient_edge5h 24m ago

    Bitcoin Up or Down on July 31?

    no Kelly edge at ask 94c vs fair 90c

    signal age at decision 56s
  • DIRenter NO5h 24m ago

    Bitcoin Up or Down on July 31?

    no Kelly edge at ask 94c vs fair 90c

    signal age at decision 56s
  • DIRskip · thin_book5h 24m ago

    Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on July 29?

    no book available from venue

    signal age at decision 56s
  • DIRskip · thin_book5h 24m ago

    Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on July 29?

    no book available from venue

    signal age at decision 56s
  • AGGskip · thin_book5h 29m ago

    Trump out as President by July 31?

    no two-sided mid to anchor fair value

    signal age at decision 1h 04m
  • DIRskip · thin_book6h 10m ago

    Trump out as President by July 31?

    no two-sided mid to anchor fair value

    signal age at decision 23m 38s
  • DIRskip · thin_book6h 10m ago

    Trump out as President by July 31?

    no two-sided mid to anchor fair value

    signal age at decision 23m 38s
  • AGGskip · low_confidence9h 29m ago

    Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?

    matcher confidence 0.33 < 0.55

    signal age at decision 1h 34m
  • AGGskip · low_confidence9h 29m ago

    Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?

    matcher confidence 0.33 < 0.55

    signal age at decision 1h 34m
  • AGGskip · low_confidence9h 29m ago

    Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 29?

    matcher confidence 0.30 < 0.55

    signal age at decision 1h 34m
  • AGGskip · low_confidence9h 33m ago

    Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?

    matcher confidence 0.33 < 0.55

    signal age at decision 1h 30m
  • AGGskip · low_confidence9h 33m ago

    Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in July?

    matcher confidence 0.33 < 0.55

    signal age at decision 1h 30m
  • AGGskip · low_confidence9h 33m ago

    Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?

    matcher confidence 0.33 < 0.55

    signal age at decision 1h 30m
  • AGGskip · low_confidence10h 09m ago

    Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?

    matcher confidence 0.33 < 0.55

    signal age at decision 54m 07s
  • AGGskip · low_confidence10h 09m ago

    Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 29?

    matcher confidence 0.30 < 0.55

    signal age at decision 54m 07s
  • AGGskip · low_confidence10h 09m ago

    Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 30?

    matcher confidence 0.30 < 0.55

    signal age at decision 54m 07s
  • AGGskip · thin_book10h 14m ago

    Trump out as President by July 31?

    no two-sided mid to anchor fair value

    signal age at decision 59m 04s
  • DIRskip · low_confidence11h 01m ago

    Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?

    matcher confidence 0.33 < 0.55

    signal age at decision 1m 53s
  • DIRskip · low_confidence11h 01m ago

    Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?

    matcher confidence 0.33 < 0.55

    signal age at decision 1m 53s
  • DIRskip · low_confidence11h 01m ago

    Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in July?

    matcher confidence 0.33 < 0.55

    signal age at decision 1m 53s
  • DIRskip · low_confidence11h 01m ago

    Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in July?

    matcher confidence 0.33 < 0.55

    signal age at decision 1m 53s
  • DIRskip · low_confidence11h 01m ago

    Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?

    matcher confidence 0.33 < 0.55

    signal age at decision 1m 53s
  • DIRenter NO11h 01m ago

    Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?

    matcher confidence 0.33 < 0.55

    signal age at decision 1m 53s
  • DIRskip · low_confidence11h 01m ago

    Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?

    matcher confidence 0.33 < 0.55

    signal age at decision 1m 53s
  • DIRskip · low_confidence11h 01m ago

    Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?

    matcher confidence 0.33 < 0.55

    signal age at decision 1m 53s
  • DIRskip · low_confidence11h 01m ago

    Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?

    matcher confidence 0.33 < 0.55

    signal age at decision 1m 53s
  • DIRskip · duplicate11h 01m ago

    Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?

    already holding a position in this market

    signal age at decision 1m 53s
  • DIRskip · low_confidence11h 01m ago

    Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 29?

    matcher confidence 0.30 < 0.55

    signal age at decision 1m 53s

Engine

cycle 18s · 2022 markets watched
runninglast tick 16s agosignals 2,922mode remote
  • ingest1s
    0 items · {"sources":35,"fetched":472,"inserted":0,"duplicates":472,"notModified":19,"failures":[]}
  • ingest1s
    0 items
  • record14s
    496 items
  • match303ms
    0 items
  • decide27ms
    0 items
  • manage1ms
    0 items

no warnings